[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 October 18 issued 2346 UT on 21 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Mon Oct 22 10:46:46 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Oct             23 Oct             24 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 21 October. 
There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the visible 
solar disc. For the next 3 UT days, 22-24 October, solar activity 
is expected to be at Very Low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs 
were observed in the available SOHO LASCO imagery up to 21/2000 
UT. The solar wind speed started the UT day 21 October at around 
280-290 km/s, then began to gradually increase at 21/0700 UT, 
peaking at 400 km/s at 21/1429 UT. It is currently around 370 
km/s. During the last 24 hours, the IMF Bt began increasing around 
21/0830 UT reaching a peak of 9.33 nT at 21/1149 UT. It is currently 
varying between 4-9 nT. After 21/0800 UT, the IMF Bz started 
varying between +/-8 nT. This weak enhancement of the solar wind 
was most like due to high speed streams from the southern extension 
of the north polar coronal hole. The solar wind is expected to 
remain at nominal values on 22 October, then may become moderately 
enhanced on 23 October due to the influence of a southern-hemisphere 
negative-polarity coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11123112
      Cocos Island         2   10021---
      Darwin               6   11123212
      Townsville           6   12123212
      Learmonth            5   11123202
      Alice Springs        4   01023201
      Culgoora             4   11023111
      Gingin               5   01123112
      Canberra             2   01022101
      Launceston           6   02133112
      Hobart               4   01032111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    10   01054200
      Casey                7   13222221
      Mawson               4   01012213
      Davis                5   12023211

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               3   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              3   0100 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Oct     6    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Oct    11    Unsettled to Active
24 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mainly at Quiet levels on UT 
day 21 October across the Australian and Antarctic region, with 
an Unsettled period in the middle of the UT day. On UT day 22 
October, the geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mainly 
Quiet levels, with a chance of Unsettled periods. Geomagnetic 
activity may increase to Unsettled to Active levels on UT day 
23 October due to the possible influence of a coronal hole, returning 
to Quiet to Unsettled on UT day 24 October.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
21 Oct   -11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      0
Oct      -5
Nov      -5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values
23 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values
24 Oct    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian and Antarctic regions were 
mainly near monthly predicted levels on UT day 21 October. The 
three day outlook (UT days 22-24 October) is for MUFs to be at 
near monthly predicted levels.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 297 km/sec  Density:    8.4 p/cc  Temp:    18100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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