[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 October 18 issued 2330 UT on 12 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 13 10:30:19 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Oct             14 Oct             15 Oct
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 12 October. 
There is currently one spotted region on the visible solar disc, 
AR 2724 (currently at S08E56). It produced 2 B-class flares. 
The first flare, B2.1, peaked at 0150 UT. It was accompanied 
by a type II sweep and a CME, which were visible since 0150 UT 
and 0248 UT, respectively. This CME is not expected to be geoeffective. 
For the next 3 UT days, 13-15 October, solar activity is expected 
to be at Very Low to Low levels. During the UT day 12 October 
the solar wind speed was slowly decreasing on average, varying 
in the range 350-470 km/s, currently at 350 km/s. The IMF Bt 
was steady, varying between 2 nT and 4 nT. The IMF Bz varied 
in the range +2/-3 nT. During the next UT day, 13 October, the 
solar wind speed is expected to be near its background level. 
On 14 October it should start increasing due to expected arrival 
of the corotating interaction region and high speed solar wind 
streams associated with a recurrent coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 12 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11131101
      Cocos Island         1   10110100
      Darwin               3   11030101
      Townsville           4   11131111
      Learmonth            5   21131111
      Alice Springs        3   11130001
      Culgoora             3   11131001
      Gingin               3   21020111
      Canberra             3   11230001
      Launceston           4   12231001
      Hobart               4   11231001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     5   11241000
      Casey               11   34331122
      Mawson              17   42122354
      Davis               19   23222355

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               3   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   3332 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Oct     7    Quiet
14 Oct    12    Unsettled
15 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet levels with 
one isolated Unsettled period on UT day 12 October across the 
Australian region. Quiet to Minor Storm levels were observed 
in Antarctica. For the next UT day, 13 October, the global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be at Quiet levels; then, on 14-15 October, 
it is expected to reach Unsettled levels with possible isolated 
Active periods because the Earth is expected to be influenced 
by the corotating interaction region and high speed solar wind 
streams associated with a recurrent coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal to fair HF conditions were observed on UT day 
12 October, with MUFs varying between the monthly predicted values 
and moderately depressed ones. Mostly normal HF conditions are 
expected for the next three UT days, 13-15 October. However, 
mildly to moderately depressed MUFs are likely over equatorial 
regions and at high latitudes in the Southern hemisphere.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Oct   -22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      0
Oct      -5
Nov      -5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Oct   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                25%
14 Oct   -15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%
15 Oct   -15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%

COMMENT: On UT day 12 October over the Australian region MUFs 
were varying mostly between the monthly predicted values and 
moderately depressed ones. The highest MUF depression of 35% 
below the monthly predicted levels occurred over the Northern 
Australian region during the local night. Similar HF conditions 
are expected for the next 3 UT days, 13-15 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 484 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:   160000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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