[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 October 18 issued 2330 UT on 11 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 12 10:30:18 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 11 October.
There is currently one spotted region on the visible solar disc.
For the next 3 UT days, 12-14 October, solar activity is expected
to be at Very Low levels. During the UT day 11 October the solar
wind speed was slowly decreasing on average, varying in the range
460-530 km/s. The IMF Bt was steady, varying between 2 nT and
5 nT. The IMF Bz varied in the range +2/-4 nT. During the next
2 UT days, 12-13 October, the solar wind speed is expected to
decrease gradually from slightly elevated levels to nominal ones.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 21223221
Cocos Island 4 11112220
Darwin 6 21213212
Townsville 6 21223211
Learmonth 7 22223221
Alice Springs 7 21223221
Culgoora 5 2122-211
Gingin 8 21123331
Canberra 6 21223210
Launceston 7 22223211
Hobart 6 21223211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Oct :
Macquarie Island 10 12334211
Casey 12 34323222
Mawson 23 44333354
Davis 18 33433251
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16 3003 4443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels
on UT day 11 October across the Australian region. Quiet to Minor
Storm levels were observed in Antarctica. For the next 3 UT days,
12-14 October, the global geomagnetic activity is expected to
be mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels. Isolated Active levels
are also possible on 14 October because the Earth is expected
to be influenced by a corotating interaction region and high
speed solar wind streams associated with a recurrent coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
11 October. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the
next three UT days, 12-14 October. However, mildly depressed
MUFs are likely over equatorial regions and at high latitudes
in the Southern hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Oct -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
13 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
14 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: On UT day 11 October over the Australian region MUFs
were varying mostly between monthly predicted values and mildly
depressed ones. The highest MUF depression of 20% below monthly
predicted levels occurred over the Northern Australian region
during the local night. Similar HF conditions are expected for
the next 3 UT days, 12-14 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 496 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 169000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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