[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 October 18 issued 2336 UT on 13 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 14 10:36:04 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 71/6 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 13 October,
with one B-Class flare starting at 13/1328 UT. There is currently
two numbered sunspot regions on the visible solar disc, both
located in the southeast quadrant. For the next 3 UT days, 14-16
October, solar activity is expected to be at Very Low to Low
levels, with a remote chance of C-Class flares. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available SOHO LASCO imagery up to
13/1900 UT. The solar wind speed were mostly steady near its
background levels up to 13/1400 UT and thereafter gradually increased
to 450 km/s by the end of the UT day. These moderate enhancements
in solar wind speed are in response to the arrival of high speed
stream from a recurrent negative-polarity coronal hole. The IMF
Bt varied between 5 nT and 15 nT. The IMF Bz varied in the range
+9/-10 nT, with a significant southward component between 13/1400
UT and 13/1650 UT. The two day outlook (UT day 14-15 October)
is for the solar wind to be near moderately elevated levels as
the effects of the coronal hole persists. The influence of the
coronal hole should start to wane on UT day 16 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 12202433
Cocos Island 7 12202332
Darwin 8 12202333
Townsville 10 12202433
Learmonth 11 12202443
Alice Springs 10 12202433
Culgoora 9 02202433
Gingin 9 11202433
Canberra 9 02202433
Launceston 10 02302433
Hobart 9 02202433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Oct :
Macquarie Island 12 02200542
Casey 23 35532334
Mawson 22 33312346
Davis 66 34412925
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1222 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Oct 13 Unsettled to Active
15 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was initially at Quiet levels and
later reached Active levels on UT day 13 October across the Australian
region. Quiet to Major Storm levels were observed in Antarctica.
The disturbed conditions were caused by the arrival of CIR effect
from the recurrent negative-polarity coronal hole. The outlook
for today (UT day 14 October) is for the geomagnetic activity
to reach Unsettled levels with possible isolated Active periods
because Earth is expected to be influenced the high speed solar
wind streams associated with the coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF conditions were observed on UT day
13 October, over the dayside low-latitude and southern high latitude
region. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three UT days, 14-16 October, over the mid-latitude regions.
Mildly depressed MUFs are likely over equatorial regions and
at high latitudes in the Southern hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Oct -18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
15 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
16 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Overall, MUFs over the Australian region were slightly
depressed to near monthly predicted levels on UT day 13 Oct.
The highest MUF depression of 30% below monthly predicted levels
occurred over the North Australian during local day. The outlook
for today (UT day 14 Oct) is for the MUFs to slightly improve
compared to yesterday's conditions. Depressed MUFs are expected
to begin from UT day 15 Oct in response to the likely disturbed
geomagnetic conditions associated with the coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:36%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 57700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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