[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 October 18 issued 2337 UT on 01 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Tue Oct 2 09:37:45 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Oct             03 Oct             04 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 1 October, 
with no solar flares. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region 
on the visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 2-4 October, 
solar activity is expected to be at Very Low levels with a slight 
chance for C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available SOHO LASCO imagery up to 01/1136 UT. The solar 
wind speed reached a minimum of 353 km/s at 01/0727 UT then started 
increasing, reaching 482 km/s at 01/2233 UT. The IMF Bt reached 
9.9 nT at 01/1607 UT and is currently varying between 4-8 nT. 
The IMF Bz reached a minimum of -7.2 nT at 01/1341 UT, and is 
currently varying between -5 to 4 nT. The three day outlook (2-4 
October) is for the solar wind to remain moderately enhanced 
due to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 01 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   01124322
      Cocos Island         6   11114211
      Darwin              10   02015312
      Townsville          11   02125322
      Learmonth           11   11125322
      Alice Springs        9   01015312
      Culgoora             6   01114212
      Gingin               7   01014322
      Canberra             6   01024212
      Launceston           8   01124322
      Hobart               7   01124222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    12   00135421
      Casey               12   23324322
      Mawson              24   21133456
      Davis               15   12224352

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1200 2111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Oct    11    Quiet to Unsettled, with possible isolated Active 
                periods
03 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet to Active levels 
on the UT day 01 October across the Australian region, with an 
isolated period of Minor Storm levels in some areas. The Antarctic 
region experienced Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions with 
isolated Minor Storm periods. The outlook for the UT day 2 October 
is for Quiet to Unsettled conditions with possible isolated Active 
periods, then Quiet to Unsettled conditions on 3-4 October.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 Oct   -11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      0
Oct      -5
Nov      -5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30%
03 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30%
04 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30%

COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian region were mostly near monthly 
predicted levels on UT day 1 October, with Minor MUF depressions 
in the Northern Australian region during the local day and in 
the Southern Australian region during the local night. Mostly 
near predicted monthly MUF values with possible Minor depressions 
are expected for the Australian region on UT days 2-4 October.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 418 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    67000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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