[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 September 18 issued 2334 UT on 30 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 1 09:34:02 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Oct             02 Oct             03 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 30 September, 
with no solar flares. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region 
on the visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 1-3 October, 
solar activity is expected to be at Very Low levels with a slight 
chance for C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available SOHO LASCO imagery up to 30/2036 UT. The solar 
wind speed peaked at 505 km/s at 30/0158 UT then decreased, currently 
around 400 km/s. The IMF Bt reached 7.8 nT at 29/2346 UT and 
is currently varying between 2-5 nT. The IMF Bz reached a minimum 
of -4.1 nT at 30/1727 UT, and is currently varying between -4 
to 3 nT. The three day outlook (1-3 October) is for the solar 
wind to remain moderately enhanced due to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12012011
      Cocos Island         2   12111010
      Darwin               3   22111011
      Townsville           4   12112111
      Learmonth            5   22012122
      Alice Springs        3   13001010
      Culgoora             2   12011011
      Gingin               3   11012121
      Canberra             2   12011011
      Launceston           3   12012111
      Hobart               3   12012011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     2   01002011
      Casey                9   34212022
      Mawson              24   34221256
      Davis               11   23321143

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   2323 3113     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Oct    11    Quiet to Unsettled, with possible isolated Active 
                periods
02 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled, with possible isolated Active 
                periods
03 Oct     6    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet levels on the UT 
day 30 September across the Australian region. The Antarctic 
region experienced Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions with 
isolated Minor Storm periods. The outlook for the UT days 1-2 
October is for Quiet to Unsettled condition with possible isolated 
Active periods, then Quiet to Unsettled conditions on 3 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Sep    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      1
Sep      -4
Oct      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Oct    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30%
02 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30%
03 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30%

COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian region were mostly near monthly 
predicted levels on UT day 30 September, with Minor MUF depressions 
in the Southern Australian region during the local night. Mostly 
near predicted monthly MUF values with possible Minor depressions 
are expected for the Australian region on UT days 1-3 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 402 km/sec  Density:    6.9 p/cc  Temp:    57900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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