[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 November 18 issued 2350 UT on 16 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sat Nov 17 10:50:38 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Nov             18 Nov             19 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day of 16th November. 
Region 2727 (N01W26) is relatively unchanged since yesterday 
at only 20 millionths of a solar hemisphere in size. No earth 
directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. The 
solar wind speed ranged between 315km/s and 368km/s and is currently 
~~335km/s at the time of this report. The north south component 
of IMF (Bz) varied mostly between +3 and -2nT. Solar wind parameters 
are expected to remain at these nominal levels for the next 12-24 
hours with the chance of a slight enhancement in solar wind velocity 
17Nov-18Nov due to the influence of a minor equatorial located 
negative polarity coronal hole. Solar activity is expected to 
be Very Low for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11201100
      Townsville           2   11201101
      Alice Springs        1   11101000
      Launceston           3   02202100
      Hobart               2   01201100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Nov :
      Mawson               5   22111013
      Davis                4   22221101

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 0001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Nov     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in 
the Australian/Antarctic region for 16Nov with an isolated Unsettled 
period for Antarctic regions at the end of the UT day. Quiet 
to Unsettled periods with possible Active periods for high latitudes 
expected for 17Nov-18Nov due to minor coronal hole effects. Mostly 
Quiet conditions expected for 19Nov.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
18 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
19 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values for the Northern 
Hemisphere with notable enhancements for low to high latitudes. 
Depressed MUFs observed for daylight regions in the Southern 
Hemisphere over the UT day and MUFs ranged from near predicted 
monthly values to minor depressions during local night. Expect 
similar conditions to prevail for the next 2-3 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Nov   -41

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -17
Nov      -7
Dec      -7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Nov   -40    Depressed 10%-30%/near predicted monthly values
18 Nov   -40    Depressed 10%-30%/near predicted monthly values
19 Nov   -40    Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions for the AUS/NZ region during the last 
24 hours saw MUFs depressions ranging between 10%-30% during 
local day for all latitudes and an isolated enhanced period for 
Equatorial regions. MUFs ranged from minor depressions to near 
predicted monthly values during local night for Equatorial/Northern 
AUS regions with Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions near predicted 
monthly values. Similar levels of depressed ionospheric support 
expected for the next 3 days with minor to moderate MUF depressions 
across all latitude bands due to continued very low levels of 
ionising radiation from the Sun.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    46500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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