[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 November 18 issued 2343 UT on 15 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 16 10:43:47 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day of 15th November.
Region 2726 decayed to plage and new region 2727 (N01W13) emerged
and is currently only 10 millionths of a solar hemisphere in
size. No earth directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO
imagery. The solar wind speed ranged between 360km/s and 414km/s
and is currently ~370km/s at the time of this report. The north
south component of IMF (Bz) varied mostly between +4 and -2nT.
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at these nominal
levels for the next 3 days while solar activity expected to be
Very Low during this time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11010101
Townsville 2 21010101
Alice Springs 1 10010101
Launceston 2 11010201
Hobart 1 00000102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Nov :
Mawson 8 23112114
Davis 6 23222101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Nov 4 Quiet
17 Nov 4 Quiet
18 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian/Antarctic region for 15Nov, with notable Unsettled
periods for Antarctic regions at the beginning and towards the
end of the UT day. Mostly Quiet global geomagnetic conditions
expected for the next 2 days with chance of Unsettled conditions
for 18Nov due to minor coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
17 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values for the Northern
Hemisphere with notable enhancements for mid to high latitudes.
Depressed MUFs observed for daylight regions in the Southern
Hemisphere over the UT day and MUFs ranged from near predicted
monthly values to minor depressions during local night. Expect
similar conditions to prevail for the next 2-3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Nov -50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Nov -40 Depressed 10%-30%/near predicted monthly values
17 Nov -40 Depressed 10%-30%/near predicted monthly values
18 Nov -40 Depressed 10%-30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 14 November
and is current for 14-16 Nov. HF conditions for the AUS/NZ region
during the last 24 hours saw MUFs depressions ranging between
10%-30% during local day for all latitudes. MUFs ranged from
minor depressions to near predicted monthly values during local
night for Equatorial, Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions.
Antarctic regions near predicted monthly values. Similar levels
of depressed ionospheric support expected for the next 3 days
with minor to moderate MUF depressions across all latitude bands
due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 67200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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