[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 14 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 15 10:30:18 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day of 14th November.
There is currently one region on the visible solar disc, region
2726 (N04W18) which has remained small, quiet and stable over
the last 24 hours. No earth directed CMEs were observed in the
available LASCO imagery till 10UT 14Nov. The solar wind speed
ranged between 390km/s and 460km/s and is currently ~400km/s
at the time of this report. The north south component of IMF
(Bz) varied mostly between +5 and -4 nT. Solar wind parameters
are expected to remain at these nominal levels for the next 3
days while Solar activity expected to be Very Low during this
time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 01222211
Townsville 5 11222221
Alice Springs 2 00112201
Launceston 5 02222221
Hobart 3 01112211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Nov :
Mawson 9 13223132
Davis 10 23233132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1111 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Nov 4 Quiet
16 Nov 4 Quiet
17 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian/Antarctic region for 14Nov, with notable Unsettled
periods for Antarctic regions over the UT day. Mostly Quiet global
geomagnetic conditions expected for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
16 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
17 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to depressed
by 30% for 14Nov, this is mainly due to the continued very low
levels of ionising radiation from the Sun. Minor to moderate
MUF depressions are expected to be observed for the next three
UT days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Nov -43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
16 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
17 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 14 November
and is current for 14-16 Nov. MUFs ranged from being near predicted
monthly values to depressed by 30% for Northern AUS, Southern
AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions for 14Nov. Variable ionospheric
support for Equatorial regions with occasional enhancements to
mild MUF depressions. Minor to moderate MUF depressions across
the entire AUS/NZ region is expected for the next three days
due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 488 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 206000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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