[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 November 18 issued 2333 UT on 17 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 18 10:33:30 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day of 17th November.
Region 2727 (N01W40) grew slightly over the last 24 hours and
is now at 60 millionths of a solar hemisphere in size. No earth
directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. The
solar wind speed ranged between 277km/s and 363km/s and is currently
~~290km/s at the time of this report. The north south component
of IMF (Bz) varied mostly between +4 and -3nT. A slight enhancement
in solar wind velocity is possible over the next 3 days due to
the influence of a minor equatorial located negative polarity
coronal hole. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the
next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Townsville 1 11101010
Alice Springs 0 01100000
Launceston 1 01200000
Hobart 1 11100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Nov :
Mawson 6 32200032
Davis 6 23311011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Nov 9 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Nov 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian/Antarctic region for 17Nov with Unsettled periods
for Antarctic regions over the UT day. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
with possible Active periods for high latitudes expected for
the next 3 days due to minor coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values for the Northern
Hemisphere with notable enhancements for low to high latitudes.
Variable conditions observed for southern hemisphere ranging
from isolated enhancements during local night to depressed MUFs
during daylight regions. Expect similar conditions to prevail
for the next 2-3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Nov -40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Nov -35 Depressed 10%-30%/near predicted monthly values
19 Nov -40 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
20 Nov -40 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 16 November
and is current for 17-19 Nov. HF conditions for the AUS/NZ region
during the last 24 hours saw MUFs depressions ranging between
10%-30% during local day for all latitudes and an isolated enhanced
period for Equatorial regions. MUFs ranged from minor depressions
to near predicted monthly values during local night for Equatorial/Northern
AUS regions with Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions near predicted
monthly values and isolated enhanced periods. Similar levels
of depressed ionospheric support expected for the next 3 days
with minor to moderate MUF depressions across all latitude bands
due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 28500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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