[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 November 18 issued 2328 UT on 08 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 9 10:28:37 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Nov             10 Nov             11 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 08 November. 
There is currently one sunspot on the the solar disc (N27W17) 
visible from the Earthside. This sunspot is a cycle 25 sunspot 
due to its higher latitude and positive lead polarity. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery up to 8/2112 
UT. Solar activity is expected to stay at Very Low levels for 
the next three UT days. Over the last 24 hours the solar wind 
ranged from 425 km/s to 510 km/s and is currently near 470 km/s. 
Expect the solar wind to increase in the second half of the UT 
day, 09 November, due to expected high speed solar wind stream 
(HSS) associated with the negative polarity coronal hole becoming 
geoeffective. The total IMF (Bt) remained near 3-8 nT over the 
last 24 hours. Bz varied between +6/-7 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22131111
      Cocos Island         4   11131110
      Darwin               4   22121111
      Townsville           6   23131210
      Learmonth            6   22131221
      Alice Springs        4   22120111
      Culgoora             6   23131111
      Gingin               7   22131222
      Canberra             5   23130110
      Launceston           8   23231221
      Hobart               5   22230110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     8   12250110
      Casey               15   34442221
      Mawson              26   55333235
      Davis               20   45343223

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               5   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   2341 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Nov    16    Active
10 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 7 November 
and is current for 9-10 Nov. Geomagnetic activity in the Australian 
region ranged from Quiet to Unsettled levels for the UT day, 
08 November. For the first half of the UT day 09 November expect 
mostly Quiet levels, however, by the second half of the UT day 
expect geomagnetic activity to increase to Unsettle to Active 
levels at mid to high latitudes and likely isolated periods of 
Minor Storm levels at the higher latitudes such as Tasmania due 
to a HSS.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted to moderately depressed on 
UT day, 08 November, due to low levels of ionising radiation, 
particularly in the southern hemisphere. Expect this trend to 
continue during the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Nov   -33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -17
Nov      -7
Dec      -7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Nov   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%
10 Nov   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
11 Nov   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on 7 November 
and is current for 8-10 Nov. MUFs were depressed by 15-25% over 
much of the Australian and Antarctic regions during UT day, 08 
November, due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation. 
Expect near predicted MUFs to 20% depressions today due to continued 
very low levels of ionising radiation. On 10-11 November expect 
deeper depressions to 30% and some degradation in HF communication 
induced by an increase in geomagnetic activity on 09 November 
leading to ionospheric storming.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 420 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:    77800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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