[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 07 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 8 10:30:18 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 07 November.
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disc visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available LASCO imagery up to 7/2112 UT. Solar
activity is expected to stay at Very Low levels for the next
three UT days. Over the last 24 hours the solar wind ranged from
460 km/s to 400 km/s and is currently near 410 km/s. Expect the
solar wind to remain at nominal levels today. The total IMF (Bt)
remained near 4-7 nT over the last 24 hours. Bz varied between
+/-5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 22312111
Cocos Island 3 20101121
Darwin 4 22211011
Townsville 6 22312111
Learmonth 5 21212112
Alice Springs 3 12211011
Culgoora 5 12311111
Gingin 5 21212112
Canberra 5 12312111
Launceston 8 22412122
Hobart 5 12312111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Nov :
Macquarie Island 8 12413111
Casey 10 33321123
Mawson 26 44322165
Davis 18 23322136
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 1422 2002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Nov 6 Quiet
09 Nov 16 Active
10 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 7 November
and is current for 9-10 Nov. Geomagnetic activity in the Australian
region ranged from Quiet to Unsettled levels for the UT day,
07 November. Expect mostly Quiet levels for today, 08 November.
Midway through the UT day, 09 November expect geomagnetic activity
to increase from Quiet to Unsettle to Active levels at mid-high
latitudes and likely isolated periods of Minor Storm levels at
the higher latitudes such as Tasmania due to a high speed solar
wind stream associated with a negative polarity recurrent coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal
09 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted to moderately depressed on
UT day, 07 November, due to low levels of ionising radiation,
particularly during local daytime hours. Expect this trend to
continue during the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Nov -34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
09 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
10 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on 7 November
and is current for 8-10 Nov. MUFs were depressed by 15-20% over
much of the Australian and Antarctic regions during UT day, 07
November, due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation.
Expect near predicted MUFs to 20% depressions on 08-09 November
due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation. On 10
November expect deeper depressions to 30% and some degradation
in HF communication induced by an increase in geomagnetic activity
on 09 November leading to ionospheric storming.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 471 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 128000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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