[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 09 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 10 10:30:19 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 09 November.
There is currently one unnumbered sunspot on the the solar disc
visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available LASCO imagery up to 09/1148 UT. Solar activity
is expected to stay at Very Low levels for the next three UT
days. On UT day 09 November the solar wind speed showed a gradual
decrease from around 465 km/s at 00 UT to 375 UT by 2130 UT and
then showed a gradual increase to 470 km/s by 2300 UT. This seems
to be due to the anticipated effect of a CIR followed by a CH
effect. The total IMF (Bt) increased from 0.5 nT to 12 nT during
this time. Bz varied mostly between +3/-3 nT until 1500 nT and
then turned and stayed negative up to around -7 nT by 21 UT.
Bz then turned positive up to around 7.5 nT and stayed positive
by 2300 UT. Expect the solar wind stream to stay strong for the
next 2 to 3 days due to the effect of a high speed solar wind
stream (HSS) associated with a recurrent negative polarity coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 09 Nov : A K
Australian Region 10 11212343
Cocos Island 4 001123--
Darwin 5 102113--
Townsville 5 112113--
Learmonth 6 112123--
Alice Springs 5 012113--
Culgoora 7 10211333
Gingin 6 112123--
Canberra 5 102213--
Launceston 12 11222344
Hobart 10 01222343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Nov :
Macquarie Island 8 011333--
Casey 11 333222--
Mawson 9 322123--
Davis 11 22222433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 10 3423 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Nov 18 Mostly quiet to active, minor possibility of
isolated minor storm
11 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
12 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 7 November
and is current for 9-10 Nov. Geomagnetic activity in the Australian
region ranged from Quiet to Active levels for the UT day, 09
November. The global geomagnetic activity may be expected to
increase from quiet to active levels with a small possibility
of isolated minor storm periods on UT day 11 November due to
the effect of a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole. Mostly
unsettled to active levels of global geomagnetic activity may
be expected for UT days 12 and 13 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal-fair Fair Fair
11 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were depressed by 15-25% in some mid- to high-latitude
regions during UT day, 09 November, due to continued very low
levels of ionising radiation. Periods of minor MUF enhancements
were recorded in some low-latitude regions. Expect near predicted
MUFs to 40% depressions on UT day 10 November and near predicted
MUFs to 30% depressions on 11 and 12 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Nov -40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Nov -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
40%
11 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
12 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on 7 November
and is current for 8-10 Nov. MUFs were depressed by 15-25% over
much of the Southern Australian and Antarctic regions during
UT day, 08 November, due to continued very low levels of ionising
radiation. Periods of minor MUF enhancements were recorded in
the Northern Aus regions. In the Aus/NZ region, expect near predicted
MUFs to 40% depressions on UT day 10 November and near predicted
MUFs to 30% depressions on 11 and 12 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 178000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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