[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 May 18 issued 2332 UT on 12 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 13 09:32:40 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May:  Very Low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 May             14 May             15 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   70/5              70/5              70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity remained at Very Low levels over the 
last 24 hours with no significant flare activity. Solar activity 
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days with a slight 
chance of a C-class flare. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in available imagery for 12 May. The solar wind speed remained 
enhanced between 420-520 Km/s but in decline as the influence 
of the high speed solar wind stream from recurrent coronal hole 
wanes. The IMF Bt varied between 2-8nT while the Bz component 
of IMF varied between +4nT and -5nT. Solar winds are expected 
to continue to decline, returning to nominal values over the 
next 24-48 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 12 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   23120111
      Cocos Island         2   12110011
      Darwin               4   22121111
      Learmonth            6   32120122
      Alice Springs        5   23120111
      Culgoora             4   23120011
      Gingin               4   22120112
      Canberra             4   23120001
      Launceston           6   23131011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 May :
      Macquarie Island     5   23130000
      Casey               10   43231122
      Mawson              30   55332246

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             14        


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
14 May     5    Quiet
15 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over 
the last 24 hours across the Australian region. Mostly Quiet 
conditions are expected over the next three days. Isolated Unsettled 
conditions may be observed today, 13 May as the influence of 
the high speed solar wind stream from the recurrent coronal hole 
wanes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 May     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      7
May      1
Jun      0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 May     5    Near predicted monthly values
14 May     5    Near predicted monthly values
15 May     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values for 
most AUS/NZ regions. Night time MUFs enhancements observed in 
the Niue Island Region. The three days outlook (13-15) is for 
MUFs to be mostly near predicted monthly levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: 

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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