[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 May 18 issued 2332 UT on 12 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 13 09:32:23 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May: Very Low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 May 14 May 15 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at Very Low levels over the
last 24 hours with no significant flare activity. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days with a slight
chance of a C-class flare. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in available imagery for 12 May. The solar wind speed remained
enhanced between 420-520 Km/s but in decline as the influence
of the high speed solar wind stream from recurrent coronal hole
wanes. The IMF Bt varied between 2-8nT while the Bz component
of IMF varied between +4nT and -5nT. Solar winds are expected
to continue to decline, returning to nominal values over the
next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 May : A K
Australian Region 5 23120111
Cocos Island 2 12110011
Darwin 4 22121111
Learmonth 6 32120122
Alice Springs 5 23120111
Culgoora 4 23120011
Gingin 4 22120112
Canberra 4 23120001
Launceston 6 23131011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 May :
Macquarie Island 5 23130000
Casey 10 43231122
Mawson 30 55332246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 14
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 May 5 Quiet
15 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours across the Australian region. Mostly Quiet
conditions are expected over the next three days. Isolated Unsettled
conditions may be observed today, 13 May as the influence of
the high speed solar wind stream from the recurrent coronal hole
wanes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Normal
14 May Normal Normal Normal
15 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 May 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 7
May 1
Jun 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
14 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
15 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values for
most AUS/NZ regions. Night time MUFs enhancements observed in
the Niue Island Region. The three days outlook (13-15) is for
MUFs to be mostly near predicted monthly levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV:
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background:
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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