[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 May 18 issued 2340 UT on 11 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sat May 12 09:40:04 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May:  Very Low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May: 70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 May             13 May             14 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   70/5              70/5                70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity remained at Very Low levels over the 
last 24 hours with no significant flare activity. Solar activity 
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days with a slight 
chance of a C-class flare. GONG H Alpha images recorded a filament 
disappeared from the visible solar disk after 0500UT. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in available imagery (there was a large gap 
in SOHO LASCO images)for 11 May. The solar wind speed continued 
a gradual decline and is currently around 430 km/s due to the 
waning influence of the high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent 
coronal hole. The IMF Bt varied between 4-8nT while the Bz component 
of IMF varied between +2nT and -5nT with extended southward periods. 
Solar winds are expected to continue to decline 12-14 May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 11 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   12323232
      Cocos Island         7   12212232
      Darwin               7   12222232
      Learmonth           12   12323243
      Alice Springs       10   13323232
      Culgoora            10   12323332
      Gingin              12   12323243
      Canberra             9   12323232
      Launceston          16   23433342    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 May :
      Macquarie Island    14   12434332
      Casey               11   23323232
      Mawson              53   25533377

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14                        

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13    4333 3322     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled
13 May     5    Quiet
14 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions observed over 
the last 24 hours across the Australian region. Quiet to Unsettled 
conditions are expected today, 12 May. Then the geomagnetic activity 
is expected to decrease to Quiet levels on 13-14 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 May     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      7
May      1
Jun      0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 May     5    Near predicted monthly values
13 May     5    Near predicted monthly values
14 May     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values for 
most AUS/NZ regions. Night time MUFs enhancements observed in 
the Niue Island Region. The three days outlook (12-14) is for 
MUFs to be mostly near predicted monthly levels.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:39%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: 564 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:   370000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Bureau of Meteorology
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