[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 May 18 issued 2330 UT on 13 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 14 09:30:29 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 May 15 May 16 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at Very Low levels over the
last 24 hours with no significant flare activity. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available imagery for 13 May. The solar
wind speed on UT day 13 May was slightly above the ambient level,
varied between 420 and 500 Km/s. During the UT day 13 May, the
IMF Bt varied between 5-11 nT, mainly near 5 nT and its Bz component
was mostly between +/-3 nT. The three days outlook (14-16 May)
is for the solar wind speed to be mostly near ambient levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 May : A K
Australian Region 6 12232211
Cocos Island 4 11212211
Darwin 6 11232211
Learmonth 7 02232312
Alice Springs 5 02232201
Culgoora 6 12232201
Gingin 6 01232212
Canberra 6 12232211
Launceston 10 12243311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 May :
Macquarie Island 10 01253200
Casey 9 23322312
Mawson 23 34432226
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 3512 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 May 5 Quiet
16 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours across the Australian region. Mostly Quiet
conditions are expected over the next three days. Isolated Unsettled
conditions may be observed today, 14 May while solar wind speed
remains slightly enhanced.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal
15 May Normal Normal Normal
16 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 May 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 7
May 1
Jun 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
15 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
16 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values for
most AUS/NZ regions. The three days outlook (14-16) is for MUFs
to be mostly near predicted monthly levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 May
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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