[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 27 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 28 10:30:27 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Mar 29 Mar 30 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 27 March.
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
days. There are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disc.
There were no earthward directed CMEs observed on 27 March in
the available C2 LASCO coronagraph imagery. Over the last 24
hours the solar wind remained enhanced but decreased and is currently
~~470 Km/s. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) ranged between +/-5nT mostly neutral. Btotal was mostly
near 5nT and ranged between 3-8nT. Solar wind speeds are expected
to continue decreasing today,28 March as coronal influence wanes.
A positive polarity, north polar coronal hole may slightly enhance
the solar wind again from 29 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 22233101
Cocos Island 4 22122100
Darwin 6 22133101
Townsville 7 22233101
Learmonth 8 32233200
Alice Springs 7 22233101
Canberra 7 22233101
Launceston 10 33233211
Hobart 8 23233101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Mar :
Macquarie Island 16 23255200
Casey 16 44433222
Mawson 23 55433332
Davis 18 44433241
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin NA
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3332 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Mar 7 Quiet
29 Mar 15 Quiet to Active
30 Mar 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed across
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Active to Minor
Storm levels observed at the Antarctic region. Mostly Quiet conditions
today, 28 March due to the expected weakening influence of the
coronal hole. Initially Quiet conditions expected for 29 March
with possible Active periods due to the expected onset of a high
speed solar wind stream from a northern hemisphere located positive
polarity recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
30 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Expect mostly Normal HF conditions over the next 24
hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Mar -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 3
Apr 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
29 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
30 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: HF conditions varied between near predicted and minor
depressions for 27 March. Observed isolated periods of sporadic
E throughout the Australian region. Expect mostly near predicted
MUFs over the next three days with isolated periods of Minor
to Moderate depressed MUFs on 30 March, due to expected weak
ionospheric storming associated with an increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 499 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 271000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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