[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 28 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 29 10:30:27 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Mar 30 Mar 31 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 28 March.
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
days. There are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disc.
There were no earthward directed CMEs observed on 28 March in
the available C2 LASCO coronagraph imagery. Over the last 24
hours the solar wind continued decreasing, currently ~370 Km/s.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) ranged between +/-2 nT while Btotal was mostly near 3nT.
Solar wind speed is expected to increase from today, 29 March
and remain enhanced over the next 2 days due to the influence
of a high speed solar wind stream from a positive polarity, north
polar coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Mar : A K
Australian Region 0 10100000
Cocos Island 0 10100000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 1 11100001
Learmonth 0 10000000
Alice Springs 0 11000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 10100000
Hobart 0 00100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00100000
Casey 4 23210010
Mawson 9 42111014
Davis 5 23211012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3223 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Mar 15 Quiet to Active
30 Mar 15 Quiet to Active
31 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed across the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. From today,29 March, conditions
are expected to increase to mostly Unsettled levels with isolated
periods of Active levels due to a high speed solar wind stream
associated with a coronal hole becoming geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
30 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
31 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Expect mostly Normal HF conditions over the next 24
hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Mar -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 3
Apr 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
30 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
31 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in the Australian region
for 28 March. Observed isolated periods of sporadic E throughout
the Australian region. Expect mostly near predicted MUFs over
the next three days with isolated periods of Minor to Moderate
depressed MUFs on 30-31 March, due to expected weak ionospheric
storming associated with an increase in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:33%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 533 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 333000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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