[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 26 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 27 10:30:25 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Mar             28 Mar             29 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 26 March. 
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
days. There are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disc. 
There were no earthward directed CMEs observed on 26 March in 
the available C2 LASCO coronagraph imagery. Over the last 24 
hours the solar wind was enhanced due the influence of a negative 
polarity coronal hole. The solar wind speed ranged from 450km/s 
to 550km/s, currently ~500km/s. The north-south component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) ranged between +/-6nT 
during this period. Btotal was mostly near 4-5nT and ranged between 
3-7 nT. Enhanced solar wind speeds are expected to gradually 
wane over the next three days, 27-29 March as coronal influence 
wanes, although a positive polarity, north polar coronal hole 
may enhance the solar wind again from 29 March.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22221221
      Cocos Island         4   21111221
      Darwin               5   22221121
      Townsville           6   22221122
      Learmonth            6   22221221
      Alice Springs        6   22221221
      Gingin               6   22221222
      Canberra             7   22231221
      Launceston           8   23231222
      Hobart               7   22231222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    12   22253221
      Casey               15   44422223
      Mawson              33   45332465
      Davis               18   43332344

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15   4434 2224     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Mar     7    Quiet
29 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed across the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours with isolated Unsettled periods 
at Higher latitudes. The Antarctic region was Quiet to Unsettled 
with isolated periods of Active and Minor Storm levels. Quiet 
to Unsettled conditions expected for 27-29 March due to the expected 
weakening influence of the coronal hole. Possible isolated cases 
of Active levels on 29 March, particularly at higher latitudes 
due to the influence of a another northern hemisphere located 
positive polarity recurrent coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted MUFs observed over the last 24 
hours, however pockets of depressed MUFs were observed at high 
latitudes. Expect this trend to continue today, 27 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Mar    -0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available  
  Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      3
Apr      2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
28 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
29 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: For 26 March HF conditions were mostly near predicted 
values in the Australian region with minor depressions observed 
at higher latitudes. Observed isolated periods of sporadic E 
throughout the Australian region. Expect mostly near predicted 
MUFs today,27 March, with isolated periods of Minor depressed 
MUFs possible due to weak ionospheric storming with a return 
to near predicted MUF's on 28-29 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 467 km/sec  Density:   10.0 p/cc  Temp:   186000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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