[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 25 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 26 10:30:24 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Mar             27 Mar             28 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 25 March. 
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
days. There are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disc. 
There were no earthward directed CMEs observed on 25 March in 
the available C2 LASCO coronagraph imagery up until 1924UT. Over 
the last 24 hours solar wind speed ranged from 500km/s to 450km/s, 
currently ~460km/s. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (Bz) ranged between +/-5nT during this period. 
Btotal ranged between 2-7nT, mostly near 5nT. Similar solar wind 
conditions are expected to prevail over the UT day, 26 March.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 25 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   22343323
      Cocos Island         7   11232222
      Darwin              10   22232332
      Townsville          13   22343323
      Learmonth           13   22343323
      Alice Springs       12   22343322
      Gingin              13   22343323
      Canberra            16   22353323
      Launceston          22   33454423
      Hobart              19   22453423    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    27   23564422
      Casey               14   43332323
      Mawson              46   35443557
      Davis               40   33542457

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar : 
      Darwin              11   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               5   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   2122 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Mar    12    Unsettled
27 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions prevailed across 
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. The Antarctic region 
was Quiet to Unsettled with isolated periods of Active and Minor 
Storm levels. Expect Quiet to Active conditions to prevail today, 
26 March, with a possibility of isolated cases of Minor Storm 
levels, particularly at higher latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted MUFs observed over the last 24 
hours, however pockets of depressed MUFs were observed at low 
and polar latitudes. Expect this trend to continue today, 26 
March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Mar    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      3
Apr      2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
27 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: For 25 March HF conditions were mostly near predicted 
values in the Australian region with minor depressions observed 
at polar latitudes. Expect mostly near predicted MUFs today, 
26 March, with isolated periods of Minor depressed MUFs possible 
due to weak ionospheric storming. Isolated cases of Sporadic 
E observed in the Australian and other Oceanic regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 434 km/sec  Density:    9.5 p/cc  Temp:   175000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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