[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 24 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 25 10:30:28 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Mar             26 Mar             27 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 24 March. 
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
days. There are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disc. 
There were no earthward directed CMEs observed on 24 March in 
the available C2 LASCO coronagraph imagery up until 1936UT. Over 
the last 24 hours solar wind speed ranged from 500km/s to 395km/s, 
currently ~470km/s. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (Bz) ranged between +/-7nT during this period. 
Btotal ranged between 3-9nT. Today, 25 March, the solar wind 
speed is expected to vary and generally increase due to the influence 
of a negative polarity coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 24 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12131222
      Cocos Island         4   11120222
      Darwin               6   12132212
      Townsville           7   12232222
      Learmonth            8   22132223
      Alice Springs        6   12131222
      Gingin               9   21132323
      Canberra             6   12231212
      Launceston           9   12242222
      Hobart               8   12141222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    12   11153322
      Casey               14   34332233
      Davis               17   23332254

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              47   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             13   4313 2243     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Mar    14    Unsettled to Active
26 Mar    12    Unsettled
27 Mar     6    Quiet

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 22 March and 
is current for 24-25 Mar. Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions 
prevailed across the Australian region over the last 24 hours. 
The Antarctic region was Quiet to Unsettled with isolated periods 
of Active and Minor Storm levels. Expect Quiet to Active conditions 
to prevail today, 25 March, with a possibility of isolated cases 
of Minor Storm levels, particularly at higher latitudes due to 
a high speed solar wind stream associated with a coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted MUFs observed over the last 24 
hours, however pockets of depressed MUFs were observed at low 
and polar latitudes. Expect this trend to continue for next two 
days, 25-26 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Mar     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      3
Apr      2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
26 Mar   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
27 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: For 24 March HF conditions were mostly near predicted 
values with minor depressions observed at low and polar latitudes. 
Expect mostly near predicted MUFs today, 25-26 March, with isolated 
periods of Minor to Moderate depressed MUFs due to expected weak 
ionospheric storming associated with an increase in geomagnetic 
activity. Isolated cases of Sporadic E observed at Brisbane, 
Learmonth and Norfolk Island stations.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 448 km/sec  Density:    9.8 p/cc  Temp:   190000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list