[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 23 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 24 10:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 23 March.
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
days. There are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disc.
There were no earthward directed CMEs observed on 23 March in
the available C2 LASCO coronagraph imagery up until 1924UT. Over
the last 24 hours solar wind speed increased from 410km/s to
510km/s, currently ~475km/s. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) ranged between +/-9nT during
this period. Btotal ranged between 2-9nT, mostly 4-7nT. Today,
24 March, the solar wind speed is expected to vary and generally
increase due to the influence of a negative polarity coronal
hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 22133222
Cocos Island 5 22022122
Darwin 8 22133122
Townsville 10 32133232
Learmonth 10 32123233
Alice Springs 8 22133222
Gingin 10 32123233
Canberra 7 22132222
Launceston 9 22133232
Hobart 8 22133222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Mar :
Macquarie Island 13 12154122
Casey 14 34323233
Davis 14 33332234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1200 1133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Mar 20 Active
25 Mar 20 Active
26 Mar 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 22 March and
is current for 24-25 Mar. Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions
prevailed across the Australian region over the last 24 hours.
The Antarctic region was Quiet to Unsettled with isolated periods
of Active and Minor Storm levels. Expect Quiet to Active conditions
to prevail for the next two days, 24-25 March, with a possibility
of isolated cases of Minor to Major storm levels, particularly
at higher latitudes due to a high speed solar wind stream associated
with a coronal hole becoming geoeffective.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted MUFs observed over the last 24
hours, however pockets of depressed MUFs were observed. Expect
this trend to continue for today, 24 March. Moderately depressed
MUFs may occur on 25-26 March due to expected ionospheric storming
associated with an increase in geomagnetic activity resulting
in Fair to Poor HF conditions particularly at higher latitudes
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Mar 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 3
Apr 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
25 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
26 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: For 23 March HF conditions were mostly near predicted
values. Expect near predicted MUFs today, 24 March. There may
be depressed MUFs on 25-26 March due to expected ionospheric
storming associated with an increase in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 28300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list