[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 11 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 12 10:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 11 March. Currently
there are no sunspots on the solar disc visible from the Earthside.
No earthward directed CMEs were visible in the LASCO images over
the last 24 hours. The day (UT day 11 March) started with solar
wind speed nearly at 400 km/s, Bt at 10 nT and Bz at +7 nT. Solar
wind speed showed a gradual increase to 450 km/s by midday today
and then decreased to 370 km/s by the end of the day. Bz varied
between -4nT and +9 nT by 0400 UT and then gradually settled
close to the normal value and stayed at this levels for the rest
of the UT day. Bt gradually decreased from 10 nT to 1 nT by 1700
UT and then gradually increased to 4 nT. The effect of a negative
polarity coronal hole may start to strengthen the solar wind
stream from 14 March. Very low levels of solar flare activity
are expected for the next three UT days, 12-14 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 32100111
Cocos Island 3 31100110
Darwin 4 32100111
Townsville 5 32211110
Learmonth 4 32110111
Alice Springs 4 32100111
Culgoora 4 32100111
Gingin 3 21110111
Canberra 2 22100011
Launceston 4 22210111
Hobart 2 22100101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 12110000
Casey 14 45330112
Mawson 10 33311014
Davis 8 33322012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 4332 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Mar 5 Quiet
13 Mar 5 Quiet
14 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
across the Australian region today (UT day 11 March). Mostly
quiet conditions may be expected on 12 and 13 March. Due to an
expected effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a negative
polarity coronal hole geomagnetic activity may rise to unsettled
levels on 14 March with some possibility of isolated active periods
on this day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values during
the UT day 11 March with some periods of minor enhancements in
some low and mid latitude regions. Mostly normal HF conditions
may be expected for the next three days, 12 to 14 March with
a small possibility of some periods of minor MUF depressions
on 14 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Mar 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 3
Apr 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
13 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
14 Mar 8 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Isolated
periods of minor MUF depressions possible
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values in the
Australian region during the UT day 11 March with some periods
of minor enhancements. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
in the Australian region for the next three days, 12 to 14 March
with a small possibility of some periods of minor MUF depressions
on 14 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 16000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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