[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 10 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 11 10:30:27 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 March. Currently
there are no sunspots on the solar disc visible from the Earthside.
No earthward directed CMEs were visible in the LASCO images over
the last 24 hours. Due to the effect of a previously mentioned
weak CME, the day (UT day 10 March) started with solar wind speed
nearly at 450 km/s, Bt at 15 nT and Bz at -6 nT. Solar wind speed
showed a gradual decrease to 370 km/s by the end of the day.
Bz stayed negative until around 1200 UT and went negative up
to -12 nT and later on positive up to around 9 nT. Bt stayed
close to 15 nT until 1700 UT and then varied between 10 and 12
nT during the rest of the day. Very low levels of solar flare
activity are expected for the next three UT days, 11-13 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 22223222
Cocos Island 6 22212122
Darwin 6 21213122
Townsville 8 22223222
Learmonth 7 22213222
Alice Springs 7 22223122
Culgoora 7 22223221
Gingin 10 32214231
Canberra 7 22223221
Launceston 12 32334222
Hobart 10 22324221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Mar :
Macquarie Island 18 22545211
Casey 11 33322232
Mawson 34 66522334
Davis 23 55332343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 3201 1134
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Mar 7 Quiet with the possibility of some unsettled
periods
12 Mar 5 Quiet
13 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were
observed across the Australian region today (UT day 10 March).
Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions may be expected on 11 March
followed by quiet conditions on 12 and 13 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values during
the UT day 10 March with some periods of minor enhancements at
mid and low latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
for the next three days, 11 to 13 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Mar 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 3
Apr 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Mar 8 Near predicted monthly values
12 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
13 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values in the
Australian region during the UT day 10 March with some periods
of minor enhancements. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
in the Australian region for the next three days, 11 to 13 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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