[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 June 18 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 29 09:30:27 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jun             30 Jun             01 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day, 28 Jun. 
There is currently no numbered sunspot on the visible disk. Solar 
activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the next 
three days. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 
imagery up to 1548UT. Solar wind speed remained elevated under 
the influence of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent 
coronal hole, currently ~500Km/s. The Bz component of IMF was 
between +/- 4nT. The IMF Bt during this period remained ~5nT. 
During the next UT day, 29 Jun, solar wind speed is expected 
to decrease to nominal values as coronal hole influences wane. 
Then it may increase slightly on day two, 30 Jun in response 
to high speed solar wind stream from another coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111210
      Darwin               3   11111211
      Townsville           4   12111211
      Learmonth            4   21211210
      Alice Springs        2   11110210
      Gingin               3   21101220
      Canberra             2   10010210
      Launceston           4   11112211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     3   10022200
      Casey                6   22211222
      Mawson              19   53112254

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   1322 2113     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jun    12    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 28 Jun. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels over the next 
three days, however a period of significant southward Bz component 
could produce isolated Active periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Jun     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      4
Jun      -1
Jul      -2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values
30 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values
01 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values for 
most AUS/NZ regions. Observed isolated periods of sporadic E 
and spread F throughout the Australian region. The three days 
outlook (29 Jun- 01 Jul) is for MUFs to be mostly near predicted 
monthly levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 556 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:   379000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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