[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 June 18 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 30 09:30:40 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jun             01 Jul             02 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day, 29 Jun. 
There is currently no numbered sunspot on the visible disk. Solar 
activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the next 
three days. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the UT 
day, 29 Jun in available LASCO C2 imagery. The solar wind speed 
continued to decline as coronal hole influences wane, currently~450km/s. 
The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +/-3nT 
and the IMF Bt was ~5nT. Solar wind speed may increase slightly 
today, 30 Jun in response to high speed solar wind stream from 
a weak coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   12010000
      Darwin               2   12110000
      Townsville           2   12110000
      Learmonth            2   12120000
      Alice Springs        1   12010000
      Culgoora             1   12010000
      Gingin               1   11010000
      Canberra             1   11010000
      Launceston           1   12010000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                4   22111210
      Mawson               7   33321110

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2101 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jun    12    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 29 Jun. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels over the next 
three days due to the influence of a weak coronal hole. A period 
of significant southward Bz component could produce isolated 
Active periods over the the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Jun     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      4
Jun      -1
Jul      -2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values
01 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values for 
most AUS/NZ regions. Observed isolated periods of sporadic E 
and spread F throughout the Australian region. The three days 
outlook (30 Jun- 02 Jul) is for MUFs to be mostly near predicted 
monthly levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 516 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:   303000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list