[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 June 18 issued 2330 UT on 27 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 28 09:30:38 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jun 29 Jun 30 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 69/3 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day, 27 Jun.
There is currently one numbered sunspot region near the Western
Limb. Solar activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels
for the next three days. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
during the UT day, 27 Jun in available LASCO C2 imagery. Solar
wind speed remained elevated under the influence of a high speed
solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole and is ~530km/s
at the time of this report. The Bz component of IMF was between
+/- 5nT with no prolonged periods of southward orientation. The
IMF Bt during this period remained ~5nT. The outlook for 28-30
Jun is for the solar wind speed to gradually decrease to nominal
values as coronal hole influences wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 12112112
Darwin 4 22111111
Townsville 5 13112112
Learmonth 6 12112123
Alice Springs 3 02112012
Gingin 6 12112123
Canberra 4 12112012
Launceston 6 22113112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jun :
Macquarie Island 5 12223011
Casey 8 23322122
Mawson 24 24433236
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 60 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 28 6434 4342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jun 15 Quiet to Active
29 Jun 7 Quiet
30 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 25 June and
is current for 27-28 Jun. Magnetic conditions were at Quiet levels
across the Australian region during the UT day, 27 Jun with some
locations experiencing isolated Unsettled levels. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled today, 28 Jun,
however a period of significant southward Bz component could
produce isolated Active periods. Mostly Quiet levels are expected
on the UT days, 29-30 Jun, as the solar wind returns to nominal
values.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jun 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 4
Jun -1
Jul -2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours with periods of minor depression observed at
Southern AUS/NZ region. MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly
values for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: 531 km/sec Density: 9.5 p/cc Temp: 361000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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