[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 June 18 issued 2347 UT on 19 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Wed Jun 20 09:47:19 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun:  77/16

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jun             21 Jun             22 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              76/14

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
There is currently two numbered sunspots on the visible disk, 
region 2713 (N04W23) and region 2714 (N08W41). No earthward directed 
CME's were observed in available LASCO imagery. The solar wind 
speed was ~510km/s at 00UT and ranged between 473km/s and 529km/s 
up until 21UT. Solar wind speed is ~465km/s at the time of this 
report and is expected to gradually decline over the next 24 
hours due to the waning influence of the high speed solar wind 
stream from a northern hemisphere located positive polarity recurrent 
coronal hole. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged 
fluctuated between +/-4nT over the UT day. Solar activity is 
expected to remain at Very Low levels for the next three days 
with a small chance of C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11222011
      Darwin               4   11222011
      Townsville           6   21332011
      Learmonth            5   12222012
      Alice Springs        3   01222011
      Gingin               5   12222022
      Canberra             5   11232011
      Launceston           7   12333011
      Hobart               no data available    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     5   10233000
      Casey                7   33222021
      Mawson              18   44433133

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              19   (Quiet)
      Canberra            54   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20   5543 2222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jun     7    Quiet
21 Jun     5    Quiet
22 Jun     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours for the AUS/NZ region. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for 19Jun 
with notable enhancements observed at mid latitudes and disturbed 
ionospheric support for high latitudes. Similar HF conditions 
expected for the next 3 days with MUFs near predicted monthly 
values.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
19 Jun    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      4
Jun      -1
Jul      -2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values
22 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours with periods of notable enhancements observed 
at Southern AUS/NZ regions during local night. Variable ionospheric 
support observed for Antarctic regions ranging from enhanced 
to poor/disturbed conditions. MUFs expected to be near predicted 
monthly values for the next 3 days with chance of minor enhancements 
for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions over the next 24 
hours.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 491 km/sec  Density:   14.6 p/cc  Temp:   367000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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