[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 June 18 issued 2343 UT on 20 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 21 09:43:44 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 20Jun. There is currently
three numbered sunspots on the visible disk of which regions
2713 (N04W35) and 2714 (N06W66) have remained quiet and stable
over the last 24 hours. Newly numbered region 2715 (N04E20) is
the largest at 80 millionths of a solar hemisphere. No earthward
directed CME's were observed in available LASCO imagery. The
solar wind speed ranged between ~500km/s and ~420km/s over the
UT day and is ~430km/s at the time of this report. Solar wind
speed is expected to return to background/ambient levels for
the next 3 days. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged
fluctuated between +/-3nT. Solar activity is expected to remain
at Very Low levels for the next three days with a small chance
of C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11221000
Darwin 2 11111001
Townsville 2 12111000
Learmonth 3 02221000
Alice Springs 2 11211000
Gingin 2 01211100
Canberra 2 01220000
Launceston 2 11221000
Hobart 2 01220000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jun :
Macquarie Island 2 01220000
Casey 7 23222211
Mawson 15 23333125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2232 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jun 5 Quiet
22 Jun 5 Quiet
23 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions are expected for the next 3 days as the solar wind
parameters return to ambient levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for 20Jun
with notable enhancements observed at mid latitudes and some
disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes. Similar HF
conditions expected for the next 3 days with MUFs near predicted
monthly values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jun 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 4
Jun -1
Jul -2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours with periods of notable enhancements observed
at Equatorial regions during local night. Variable ionospheric
support observed for Antarctic regions ranging from enhanced
to poor/disturbed conditions. MUFs expected to be near predicted
monthly values for the next 3 days with chance of slight enhancements
for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed: 494 km/sec Density: 13.0 p/cc Temp: 415000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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