[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 June 18 issued 2352 UT on 18 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Tue Jun 19 09:52:45 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jun             20 Jun             21 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              74/11              74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
There is currently one numbered sunspot on the visible disk, 
region 2713 (N05W10). No earthward directed CME's were observed 
in available LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed was ~400km/s 
at 00UT and began to steadily increase from 04UT onwards to reach 
a maximum of 597km/s at 1425UT. Solar wind speed has remained 
elevated under the influence of a high speed solar wind stream 
from a recurrent coronal hole and is ~500km/s at the time of 
this report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) began 
the UT day southward, reaching -12nT at 0021UT. Btotal was approx 
20nT between 00UT-04UT and then gradually declined in magnitude 
over the UT day. Bz ranged between +19nT and -11nT between 04UT-07UT 
after which it gradually decreased in magnitude and is currently 
fluctuating between +/-4nT. The solar wind stream is expected 
to remain elevated over the next 24 hours due to coronal hole 
effects. Solar activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels 
for the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   32343211
      Darwin               9   32332211
      Townsville          12   32442211
      Learmonth           10   32333221
      Alice Springs        9   32333111
      Gingin              10   32333221
      Canberra            11   32343210
      Launceston          14   32444211
      Hobart              15   323440--    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    21   22456100
      Casey               11   32432222
      Mawson              37   64442265

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             23                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   1111 0122     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jun    11    Unsettled
20 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Jun     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions observed across 
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Active periods 
were observed in the first half of the UT day due to the arrival 
of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. 
Unsettled conditions expected for 19Jun and mostly Quiet with 
possible Unsettled periods for 20Jun-21Jun.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for 18Jun 
with notable enhancements observed at low to mid latitudes and 
disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes. Similar HF 
conditions expected for the next 3 days with MUFs near predicted 
monthly values.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
18 Jun    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      4
Jun      -1
Jul      -2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours with periods of notable enhancements observed 
Equatorial, Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions during local 
night. Disturbed ionospheric conditions observed for Antarctic 
regions due to elevated geomagnetic activity. MUFs expected to 
be near predicted monthly values for the next 3 days with possible 
enhancements for Equatorial, Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ 
regions over the next 24 hours.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 310 km/sec  Density:   13.7 p/cc  Temp:    15000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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