[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 June 18 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 16 09:30:23 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jun             17 Jun             18 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today (UT day, 15 June). 
There is currently one numbered sunspot region (2713) on the 
solar disk visible from the Earthside. No Earthward directed 
CME was observed today. The solar wind speed varied mostly between 
300 km/s and 330 km/s today. The IMF Bt varied mostly between 
1 and 5 nT today whereas the Bz component of IMF varied mostly 
between +/-4 nT during this time. Solar activity is expected 
to remain at Very Low levels for the next three days (UT days 
16 to 18 June). The solar wind stream is expected to stay at 
background levels on UT days 16 and 17 June. Slight strengthening 
in solar wind is possible from UT day 18 June due to the effect 
of a coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110000
      Darwin               1   11110001
      Townsville           2   11120001
      Learmonth            2   21110100
      Alice Springs        1   11110000
      Gingin               0   10000100
      Canberra             0   01010000
      Launceston           1   11010100
      Hobart               1   11010000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                2   21110110
      Mawson               4   22100122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   2111 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jun     5    Quiet
17 Jun     5    Quiet
18 Jun     7    Mostly Quiet, some Unsettled conditions possible

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions across the Australian region 
on UT day 15 June were at Quiet levels. Similar levels of geomagnetic 
activity may be expected on UT days 16 and 17 June. Some periods 
of Unsettled geomagnetic conditions are possible from late on UT day 
18 June due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream from 
a coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with 
periods of minor to moderate enhancements on UT day 15 June. 
HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal for the next 
three days (UT days 16 to 18 June).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jun     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      4
Jun      -1
Jul      -2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jun     4    Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun     4    Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun     3    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with 
periods of minor to moderate enhancements for AUS/NZ regions 
on UT day 15 June. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly 
normal in this region for the next three days (UT days 16 to 
18 June).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 331 km/sec  Density:    7.9 p/cc  Temp:    20100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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