[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 June 18 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 17 09:30:27 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jun             18 Jun             19 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today (UT day, 16 June). 
There is currently one numbered sunspot region (2713) on the 
solar disk visible from the Earthside. No Earthward directed 
CME was observed today. The solar wind speed varied mostly between 
290 km/s and 310 km/s today. The IMF Bt varied mostly between 
1.5 and 4 nT today whereas the Bz component of IMF varied mostly 
between +/-3 nT during this time. Solar activity is expected 
to remain at Very Low levels for the next three days (UT days 
17 to 19 June). The solar wind stream is expected to stay at 
background levels on 17 June. Slight strengthening in solar wind 
is possible on UT days 18 and 19 June due to the effect of a 
coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   10100000
      Darwin               1   1110000-
      Townsville           1   1110000-
      Learmonth            1   1110000-
      Alice Springs        0   0010000-
      Gingin               0   0000000-
      Canberra             0   0000000-
      Launceston           0   10100000
      Hobart               0   10000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   000000--
      Casey                0   0110000-
      Mawson               1   2110000-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   1100 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jun     5    Quiet
18 Jun     7    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jun     7    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions across the Australian region 
on UT day 16 June were at Quiet levels. Similar levels of geomagnetic 
activity may be expected on UT day 17 June. Some periods of Unsettled 
geomagnetic conditions are possible on UT day 18 and 19 June 
due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal 
hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with 
periods of minor to moderate enhancements on UT day 16 June. 
HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal for the next 
three days (UT days 17 to 19 June).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jun    -0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      4
Jun      -1
Jul      -2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jun     3    Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun     1    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun     1    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with 
periods of minor to moderate enhancements for AUS/NZ regions 
on UT day 16 June. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly 
normal in this region for the next three days (UT days 17 to 
19 June).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 320 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:    15100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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