[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 June 18 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 15 09:30:25 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jun             16 Jun             17 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today (UT day, 14 June). 
There is currently one numbered sunspot region (2713) on the 
solar disk visible from the Earthside. One CME is visible near 
the south-west limb in the LASCO C2 imagery starting around 1700 
UT. It seems to be a backside event and is not expected to have 
any earthward component. Further analysis is required to confirm 
this after more images become available. The solar wind speed 
varied between 300 km/s and 350 km/s today. The IMF Bt varied 
mostly between 2 and 6 nT today whereas the Bz component of IMF 
varied mostly between +/-5 nT during this time. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at Very Low levels and solar wind stream 
at normal levels for the next three days (UT days 15 to 17 June).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11211011
      Darwin               3   11211011
      Townsville           3   11211011
      Learmonth            3   21210011
      Alice Springs        2   11210011
      Gingin               3   20210021
      Canberra             1   10110011
      Launceston           3   11211011
      Hobart               1   10111001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00011000
      Casey                3   21210021
      Mawson               9   33210142

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   1111 1123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jun     5    Quiet
16 Jun     5    Quiet
17 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions across the Australian region 
on UT day 14 June were at Quiet levels. Similar levels of geomagnetic 
activity may be expected for the next three days (UT days 15 
to 17 June).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with 
periods of minor to moderate enhancements on UT day 14 June. 
HF conditions are expected to stay normal for the next three 
days (UT days 15 to 17 June).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Jun     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      4
Jun      -1
Jul      -2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jun     6    Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun     6    Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun     6    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with 
periods of minor to moderate enhancements for AUS/NZ regions 
on UT day 14 June. HF conditions are expected to stay normal 
in this region for the next three days (UT days 15 to 17 June).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 303 km/sec  Density:   11.1 p/cc  Temp:    17800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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