[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 July 18 issued 2345 UT on 23 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 24 09:45:38 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 23 July, with
no flares. There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on
the solar disk visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery up to 23/1530 UT.
During the UT day 23 July the solar wind speed decreased to nominal
levels, starting around 480 km/s, reaching a minimum of 380 km/s,
currently near 400 km/s. The total IMF Bt varied mostly between
1 nT and 5 nT during the past 24 hours. The Bz component of IMF
varied between -4 nT to 3 nT. Very low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next three UT days, 24-26 July. During the
next 24 hours, the solar wind speed is expected to become enhanced
due to the arrival of a high speed stream from a recurrent equatorial
coronal hole (possibly even connected with the southern polar
coronal hole).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 01110010
Cocos Island 1 01010010
Darwin 1 11110000
Townsville 2 11110011
Learmonth 1 01110010
Alice Springs 0 00110000
Culgoora 0 01010000
Gingin 2 01120010
Canberra 1 01010010
Launceston 1 01011010
Hobart 1 01010010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 00021010
Casey 4 12221020
Mawson 7 22232122
Davis 7 11333020
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2212 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jul 24 Active with possible isolated minor storms
25 Jul 14 Unsettled to Active with possible isolated minor
storms
26 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 22 July and
is current for 24-25 Jul. Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels
across the Australian region on UT day 23 July. Active and possible
isolated minor storm levels of global geomagnetic activity are
expected from early 24 July in response to CIR and subsequent
HSS associated with a recurrent equatorial coronal hole (possibly
even connected with the southern polar coronal hole). Unsettled
to Active conditions, with possible isolated minor storms, are
expected on UT day, 25 July, then Quiet to Unsettled conditions
on UT day, 26 July, as the influence of the coronal hole declines.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of moderately degraded HF propagation conditions
are possible on 24 July and 25 July due to expected increase
of geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jul 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 7
Jul -2
Aug -3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jul 15 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
26 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 23 July, with minor MUF depressions
in the Northern Australian Region during the local day. Incidents
of sporadic-E were observed at some Australian sites. Periods
of moderately degraded conditions are possible on 24 July and
25 July due to expected increase of geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 489 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 279000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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