[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 23 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 22 July, with
no flares. There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on
the solar disk visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery up to 22/2200 UT.
During the UT day 22 July the solar wind speed was near its moderate
levels, varying between 460 km/s and 520 km/s, currently near
480 km/s. The total IMF Bt varied mostly between 4 nT and 6 nT
during the past 24 hours. The Bz component of IMF varied between
-4 nT and +5 nT. Very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three UT days, 23-25 July. During the next 24 hours,
the solar wind speed is expected to decline towards its nominal
levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11120200
Cocos Island 2 11120100
Darwin 3 12120201
Townsville 5 12221211
Learmonth 3 12211200
Alice Springs 2 11120200
Culgoora 3 11120201
Gingin 4 12210310
Canberra 2 11120200
Launceston 3 11221200
Hobart 2 11120200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 00130200
Casey 5 13211211
Mawson 14 33332234
Davis 11 23332223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 2334 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jul 7 Quiet
24 Jul 24 Active
25 Jul 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 22 July. Mostly quiet to unsettled
levels of global geomagnetic activity are expected for UT day
23 July, since the Earth is still under the influence of moderately
elevated solar wind speed. Active and occasional minor storm
conditions are expected from early 24 July in response to CIR
and subsequent HSS associated with a recurrent equatorial coronal
hole (possibly even connected with the southern polar coronal
hole).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal
24 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
22 July with periods of mild to moderate MUF enhancements in
the Southern hemisphere. Mostly normal to moderately enhanced
MUFs are expected for the next two UT days (23-24 July). Periods
of moderately degraded HF propagation conditions are possible
on 24 July and 25 July due to expected increase of geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jul 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 7
Jul -2
Aug -3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jul 15 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 22 July, with periods of mild to moderate
MUF enhancements in the Southern Australian Region during local
night. Incidents of sporadic-E were observed at some Australian
sites. Mostly normal to moderately enhanced MUFs are expected
in the Aus/NZ regions for the next two UT days (23-24 July).
Periods of moderately degraded conditions are possible on 24
July and 25 July due to expected increase of geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 503 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 284000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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