[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 20 09:30:24 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jul             21 Jul             22 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 19 July). 
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar 
disk visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed today in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery up to 19/2218 UT. During 
the UT day 19 July the solar wind speed was near its nominal 
values, gradually increasing on average since 0805 UT, currently 
at 390 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 1 nT and 6 nT. 
The Bz component of IMF varied between -4 nT and +5 nT. Very 
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 20-22 July. During the next 24 hours the solar wind 
speed is expected to increase further due to effects related 
to a recurrent coronal hole which was facing the Earth on 16 
July.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   01010111
      Cocos Island         1   01010010
      Darwin               1   01110101
      Townsville           2   11110111
      Learmonth            1   00110111
      Culgoora             1   01010101
      Gingin               1   00100110
      Canberra             0   00000100
      Launceston           2   11010211
      Hobart               0   00000110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010100
      Casey                4   12211211
      Mawson               7   31121232
      Davis                9   22231133

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1010 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active
21 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels across the 
Australian region today (UT day 19 July). On UT day 20 July geomagnetic 
activity is expected to increase and can reach active levels 
due to effects related to a recurrent coronal hole which was 
facing the Earth on 16 July. Isolated minor storm periods are 
also possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today (UT 
day 19 July) with periods of mild MUF enhancements in the Southern 
hemisphere. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the 
next three UT days (20-22 July). Periods of moderately degraded 
conditions are possible on 20 July due to expected increase of 
geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Jul     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      7
Jul      -2
Aug      -3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jul    15    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values
22 Jul     6    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the 
Aus/NZ regions today (UT day 19 July) with periods of mild MUF 
enhancements in the Southern Australian region during local night 
and after local dawn. Incidents of sporadic-E were observed across 
Australian regions. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected 
in the Aus/NZ regions for the next three UT days (20-22 July). 
Periods of moderately degraded conditions are possible on 20 
July due to expected increase of geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 415 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:   178000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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