[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 19 09:30:25 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jul             20 Jul             21 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 18 July). 
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar 
disk visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed today in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery up to 18/1436 UT. During 
the UT day 18 July the solar wind speed was quite steady, mostly 
decreasing from 450 km/s to 400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied 
between 2 nT and 6 nT today, gradually decreasing on average. 
The Bz component of IMF varied between -2 nT and +2 nT. Very 
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 19-21 July. During the next 24 hours the solar wind 
speed is expected to vary near its nominal levels. In the second 
half of the next UT day (19 July), the solar wind speed is expected 
to start increasing due to effects related to a recurrent coronal 
hole which was facing the Earth on 16 July.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100000
      Cocos Island         0   01000000
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           1   11100011
      Learmonth            2   11201010
      Alice Springs        1   010-----
      Culgoora             0   01000000
      Gingin               1   11100010
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Launceston           0   11000000
      Hobart               0   11000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                2   12210010
      Mawson               7   22122033
      Davis                6   22232021

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               7   (Quiet)
      Canberra            40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   2441 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jul    13    Unsettled to Active
20 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active
21 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels across the 
Australian region today (UT day 18 July). Mostly quiet levels 
of global geomagnetic activity are expected for the first half 
of the next UT day, 19 July. Later on UT day 19 July geomagnetic 
activity is expected to increase and can reach active levels 
due to effects related to a recurrent coronal hole which was 
facing the Earth on 16 July. Isolated minor storm periods are 
also possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today (UT 
day 18 July) with periods of mild MUF enhancements in the Southern 
hemisphere. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the 
next three UT days (19-21 July). Periods of moderately degraded 
conditions are possible on 19 and 20 July due to expected increase 
of geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jul     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      7
Jul      -2
Aug      -3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jul    15    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the 
Aus/NZ regions today (UT day 18 July) with periods of mild MUF 
enhancements in the Southern Australian region during local night. 
Incidents of sporadic-E were observed at some sites. Mostly normal 
HF conditions are expected in the Aus/NZ regions for the next 
three UT days (19-21 July). Periods of moderately degraded conditions 
are possible on 19 and 20 July due to expected increase of geomagnetic 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 419 km/sec  Density:    6.9 p/cc  Temp:   151000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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