[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 21 09:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 20 July).
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed today in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery up to 20/1536 UT. During
the UT day 20 July the solar wind speed was near its moderate
levels, varying between 390 km/s and 470 km/s, currently near
460 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 3 nT and 7 nT. The
Bz component of IMF varied between -4 nT and +6 nT. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days,
21-23 July. During the next 24 hours the solar wind speed is
expected to remain near its nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 11123012
Cocos Island 3 11112011
Darwin 3 11112012
Townsville 6 21123112
Learmonth 5 20123112
Alice Springs 4 11023012
Culgoora 5 11123012
Gingin 5 11123112
Canberra 5 11133011
Launceston 8 11234012
Hobart 5 11133011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jul :
Macquarie Island 7 00144001
Casey 10 23323113
Mawson 22 32232156
Davis 16 22322126
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1001 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels
across the Australian region today (UT day 20 July). Mostly quiet
to unsettled levels of global geomagnetic activity are expected
for the next 3 UT days, 21-23 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today (UT
day 20 July) with periods of mild to moderate MUF enhancements
in the Southern hemisphere. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
for the next three UT days (21-23 July).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jul 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 7
Jul -2
Aug -3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the
Aus/NZ regions today (UT day 20 July) with periods of mild to
moderate MUF enhancements during local night. Incidents of sporadic-E
were observed at several Australian sites. Mostly normal HF conditions
are expected in the Aus/NZ regions for the next three UT days
(21-23 July).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 155000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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