[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 January 18 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 8 10:30:32 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 7 Jan, with no
flares. There is currently one numbered solar region on the visible
disk, it was inactive. Very low levels of solar flare activity
are expected for the next three UT days (8-10 Jan). No earthward
directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery on
UT day 7 Jan. During 7 Jan the solar wind speed was approximately
constant, 280-290 km/s, up to 1330 UT, then it was slowly increasing,
currently at 300 km/s. The IMF Bt varied near its nominal values,
3-5 nT. The Bz component of IMF varied in the range -4/+4 nT.
During the next UT day, 8 Jan, the solar wind speed is expected
to increase to moderate values due to expected arrival of the
corotating interaction region associated with the recurrent coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11101111
Cocos Island 1 01100010
Darwin 2 21000011
Townsville 2 11001111
Learmonth 2 10100112
Culgoora 1 00001111
Camden 3 11112111
Canberra 0 00001010
Launceston 2 01101112
Hobart 1 00101011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 23221121
Mawson 7 31000143
Davis 8 22211142
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs NA
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across
the Australian region during the UT day, 7 Jan. During the next
UT day, 8 Jan, geomagnetic activity is expected to increase from
quiet to unsettled levels due to expected arrival of the corotating
interaction region associated with the recurrent coronal hole.
Mostly quiet conditions are predicted for 10 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over most regions
for the next 3 UT days, 8-10 Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jan -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -10
Jan 4
Feb 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jan -20 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed across
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 7 Jan. Periods of Sporadic E blanketing
were also evident. During the next UT day, 8 Jan, the MUFs are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values. During 9-10
Jan minor to moderate depressions are likely in response to the
forecasted increase in the geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 302 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 12700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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