[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 January 18 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 7 10:30:28 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 6 Jan, with no
flares. There is currently one numbered solar region on the visible
disk, it was inactive. Very low levels of solar flare activity
are expected for the next three UT days (7-9 Jan). No earthward
directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery on
UT day 6 Jan. During 6 Jan the solar wind speed was gradually
decreased from 320 km/s to 290 km/s. The IMF Bt varied near its
nominal values, 1-5 nT. The Bz component of IMF varied in the
range -3/+2 nT. During the next UT day, 7 Jan, the solar wind
speed is expected to increase to moderate values due to expected
arrival of the corotating interaction region associated with
the recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 20100000
Cocos Island 1 20100000
Darwin 1 20100001
Townsville 2 21100011
Learmonth 1 20001000
Alice Springs 0 20000000
Culgoora 1 20100000
Gingin 1 20100010
Camden 2 21100001
Canberra 0 1000000-
Launceston 2 21101000
Hobart 1 21100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 9 33422011
Mawson 6 21111133
Davis 6 22223111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1121 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across
the Australian region during the UT day, 6 Jan. During the next
UT day, 7 Jan, geomagnetic activity is expected to increase from
quiet to unsettled levels due to expected arrival of the corotating
interaction region associated with the recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over most regions
for the next 3 UT days, 7-9 Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jan -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -10
Jan 4
Feb 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jan -20 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed across
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 6 Jan, with mild depressions in the
Southern Australian region during local night. Periods of Sporadic
E blanketing were also evident. During the next two UT days,
7-8 Jan, the MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values. Minor to moderate depressions are likely for 9 Jan in
response to the forecasted increase in the geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 16300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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