[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 January 18 issued 2353 UT on 08 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 9 10:53:21 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 8 Jan, with no
flares. Very low levels of solar flare activity are expected
for the next three UT days (9-11 Jan). No earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 8
Jan. The solar wind started the UT day 8 Jan with speed around
290 km/s, the IMF Bt around 2 nT and the Bz component between
-2/+2 nT. A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0555UT
on 08 Jan. The solar wind speed increased to ~350 km/s, Bt to
16 nT and Bz to 13 nT. The wind speed continued to increase over
the UT day and is currently fluctuating between 500-530 km/s.
The IMF Bz component had a southward period, starting at 08/1200UT
and continuing until ~08/1420UT, reaching -13 nT at 08/1233UT.
The IMF Bz component is currently fluctuating between -5/+10
nT. The IMF Bt peaked at 21 nT at 08/1225UT and is currently
around 11 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain enhanced on
9 Jan, and start to return to nominal values on 10 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: Quiet to Active,
with an isolated Minor Storm Period
Estimated Indices 08 Jan : A K
Australian Region 11 11423323
Cocos Island 7 11323211
Darwin 11 11424213
Townsville 15 22434323
Learmonth 13 12434223
Alice Springs 13 11424323
Culgoora 11 11423323
Camden 15 13523323
Canberra 14 11523323
Launceston 16 -1533323
Hobart 14 11523323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jan :
Macquarie Island 10 00314412
Casey 26 23653333
Mawson 15 22434323
Davis 14 22434322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jan 12 Quiet to Unsettled, with possible Active periods
10 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jan 6 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions started the UT day, 8 Jan, at Quiet
levels across the Australian region. Due to a weak shock in the
solar wind, conditions increased to Active and Minor Storm levels
between 0600 and 0900 UT. The conditions were mainly Quiet to
Unsettled for the remainder of the UT day, with some stations
experiencing Active levels starting around the middle of the
day. On the UT day, 9 Jan, geomagnetic activity is expected to
be at Quiet to Unsettled levels, with possible Active periods,
due to the the high speed winds from a recurrent coronal hole.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for 10 Jan, returning
to mostly Quiet conditions on 11 Jan. In the SWS magnetometer
data for 08 Jan, a weak (26nT) impulse was observed at 0648UT
and a weak (11nT) impulse was observed at 1251UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jan -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -10
Jan 4
Feb 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jan -15 Depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
10 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
11 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed across
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 8 Jan. Periods of Sporadic E blanketing
were also evident. During the next UT days, 9-10 Jan, the MUFs
are expected to experience minor to moderate depressions in response
to the increase in the geomagnetic activity, returning to near
predicted monthly values on 11 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed: 287 km/sec Density: 10.5 p/cc Temp: 15000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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