[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 24 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 25 10:30:27 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 24 Feb. Currently,
there is one weak numbered sunspot region (Region 2699) on the
visible solar disc. Very Low levels of solar flare activity are
expected for the next three UT days, 25-27 Feb. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery for 24
Feb up to 24/1536 UT. The solar wind speed decreased from 520
km/s to 440 km/s during the last 24 hours. The IMF Bt was steady
near 5 nT and its Bz component was near 0 nT for most part of
the UT day. The outlook for today 25 Feb is for the solar winds
to remain near the moderately elevated levels in response to
a polar connected equatorial coronal hole soon reaching geoeffective
location on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22223001
Cocos Island 3 22111010
Darwin 5 22223001
Townsville 5 22223001
Learmonth 5 22223001
Alice Springs 5 22223000
Gingin 6 32213011
Canberra 3 22212000
Launceston 9 33323101
Hobart 5 22223100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Feb :
Macquarie Island 7 22423000
Casey 12 44322112
Mawson 17 44332134
Davis 10 33332112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15 1425 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Feb 12 Unsettled
26 Feb 12 Unsettled
27 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled across the
Australian region and Quiet to Active levels over the Antarctic
region during the UT day, 24 Feb. The two day outlook (25 - 26
Feb) is for Quiet to Unsettled conditions, with a possibility
of isolated periods of Minor Storm periods in the higher latitudes.
The forecasted disturbed conditions are in response to a polar
connected equatorial coronal hole soon approaching geoeffective
location on the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Expect mostly Normal HF conditions, however, isolated
pockets Minor to Moderate depressions may occur today (25 Feb),
particularly in the Southern hemisphere as a consequence of the
recent weak geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Feb -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -6
Feb 4
Mar 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
26 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
27 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs ranged from slightly enhanced values to periods
of Minor depressions across most of the Australian region during
the UT day 24 Feb. There were a cases of Sporadic E blanketing
over most Australian ionosonde sites. For 25-26 Feb, MUFs are
expected to be weakly depressed to near monthly predicted levels.
The depression are the aftermaths of the observed disturbed magnetic
conditions over the last few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 534 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 233000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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