[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 23 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 24 10:30:38 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 23 Feb. Currently
there are no sunspots on the visible solar disc. Very Low levels
of solar flare activity are expected for the next three UT days,
24-26 Feb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the LASCO
C2 coronagraph imagery for 23 Feb up to 23/1812 UT. The solar
wind speed increased from 445 and 555 km/s during the last 24
hours and is currently near 525 km/s. The IMF Bt varied from
2 to 10 nT and its Bz component varied between -8 nT and +7 nT.
During the next UT day, 24 Feb, the solar wind speed is expected
to be at enhanced to slightly enhanced levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 23 Feb : A K
Australian Region 10 23341221
Cocos Island 8 12331231
Darwin 9 23331221
Townsville 11 23341222
Learmonth 13 23341332
Alice Springs 8 13331221
Culgoora 10 23341221
Gingin 12 23340332
Canberra 10 13341221
Launceston 17 14452322
Hobart 11 13341321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Feb :
Macquarie Island 13 12352321
Casey 24 45542332
Mawson 45 36443375
Davis 25 345522--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 2102 2243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Active across the
Australian region and Quiet to Minor Storm levels over the Antarctic
region during the UT day, 23 Feb. The period between 9-12 UT
showed the most activity, likely due to the step up in solar
wind speed from ~490 to ~540 followed by a prolonged negative
period of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field,
though weak, only dipping to -5nT. This Induced a short period
of reconnection with the Earth's magnetic field. Expect Quiet
to Active conditions to prevail for the next three days, 24-26
February, with a possibility of isolated periods of Minor Storm
levels at higher latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Expect mostly Normal HF conditions, however, isolated
pockets Minor to Moderate depressions May occur particularly
in the Southern hemisphere as a consequence of the recent weak
geomagnetic activity and low EUV levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Feb -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -6
Feb 4
Mar 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
25 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
26 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: MUFs ranged from near predicted values to periods of
Minor depressions across most of the Australian region during
the UT day 23 Feb. There were a few cases of Sporadic E blanketing
over the Australian and other Oceanic ionosonde sites. For 24-26
Feb, MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values with
Minor to Moderate depressions possible, particularly in the Southern
hemisphere as a consequence of the minor increase in geomagnetic
activity and low EUV levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 409 km/sec Density: 11.5 p/cc Temp: 145000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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