[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 22 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 23 10:30:39 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Feb             24 Feb             25 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 22 Feb. Currently 
there are no sunspots on the visible solar disc. Very Low levels 
of solar flare activity are expected for the next three UT days, 
23-25 Feb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the LASCO 
C2 coronagraph imagery for 22 Feb up to 22/2012 UT. The solar 
wind speed varied between 350 and 525 km/s during the last 24 
hours and is currently near 420 km/s. The IMF Bt ranged from 
9 to 2 nT and its Bz component varied between -8 nT and +7 nT. 
During the next UT day, 23 Feb, the solar wind speed is expected 
to be near nominal to slightly enhanced levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 22 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   11123332
      Cocos Island         6   11122232
      Darwin               7   11122332
      Townsville           8   11123332
      Learmonth           11   11123343
      Alice Springs        7   11122332
      Culgoora             8   11222332
      Gingin               9   10123333
      Canberra             5   00112232
      Launceston           9   11223332
      Hobart               9   11223332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    10   01134331
      Casey               18   34433333
      Mawson              32   44323337
      Davis               16   33333433

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   0012 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled levels across 
the Australian region and Quiet to Active levels over the Antarctic 
region during the UT day, 22 Feb. Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
to prevail for the next three days, 23-25 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Expect mostly Normal HF conditions, however, isolated 
pockets Minor to Moderate depressions May occur particularly 
in the Southern hemisphere as a consequence of the recent weak 
geomagnetic activity and low EUV levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Feb    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -6
Feb      4
Mar      3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Feb    -5    Near predicted monthly values
24 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values
25 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for the 
Australian region during the UT day 22 Feb. However periods of 
minor depressions were noted in the Northern Australian region 
during local day time hours. There were a few cases of Sporadic 
E blanketing over the Australian and other Oceanic ionosonde 
sites. For 23-25 Feb, MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values. Minor to moderate depressions may occur, particularly 
in the Southern hemisphere as a consequence of the minor increase 
in geomagnetic activity and low EUV levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:    6.4 p/cc  Temp:   157000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list