[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 16 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 17 10:30:30 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Feb             18 Feb             19 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 16 Feb. Active 
Region 2699 produced only one B-class flare. Very low levels 
of solar flare activity are expected for the next three UT days, 
17-19 Feb, with a chance for C-class flares for 17 Feb. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The 
solar wind speeds were light to moderate, 330-420 km/s. The IMF 
Bt varied in the range 3-14 nT and its Bz component was between 
-9 nT and +13 nT, without prolonged periods with negative Bz. 
During the next UT day, 17 Feb, the solar wind speed is expected 
to increase to moderate and strong levels due to arrival of high 
speed streams from the recurrent coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 16 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   33421122
      Darwin               4   32200001
      Townsville          11   33431122
      Learmonth           11   43321222
      Alice Springs       11   334211--
      Culgoora             9   23421122
      Canberra             7   23321111
      Launceston          11   33422222
      Hobart               9   23421121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Feb :
      Mawson              12   334221--
      Davis               16   33532232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   1011 2442     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active
18 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet to active levels 
across the Australian and Antarctic regions during the UT day, 
16 Feb. In the SWS magnetometer data for 16 Feb, a weak (10 nT) 
impulse was observed at 0758 UT. Unsettle to active conditions 
are expected for 17 Feb due to recurrent coronal hole effect. 
Then the geomagnetic activity is expected to decrease to quiet 
and unsettled levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: For 17 Feb, MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values. Minor to moderate depressions can occur in the 
Southern hemisphere as a consequence of the recent increase in 
geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Feb     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -6
Feb      4
Mar      3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Feb     4    Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb     4    Near predicted monthly values
19 Feb     4    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during 
the UT day 16 Feb over the Australian region. Minor depressions 
were also observed in the Northern Australian region during local 
day. There were a few cases of Sporadic E blanketing over the 
Australian ionosonde sites. For 17-19 Feb MUFs are expected to 
be mostly near predicted monthly values. Minor to moderate depressions 
can occur in the Southern hemisphere as a consequence of the 
recent increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 354 km/sec  Density:   11.7 p/cc  Temp:    33400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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