[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 17 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 18 10:30:21 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 17 Feb. Active
Region 2699 has rotated around the west limb and currently there
are no sunspots on the visible solar disc. Very Low levels of
solar flare activity are expected for the next three UT days,
18-20 Feb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the LASCO
C2 coronagraph imagery for 17 Feb. up to 17/2048UT. The solar
wind speed was slightly enhanced ranging from 525 to 460 km/s
and is currently near 500 km/s. The IMF Bt ranged from 3-6 nT
and its Bz component varied between -5 nT and +4 nT. During the
next UT day, 18 Feb, the solar wind speed is expected to remain
at slightly enhanced levels due to the high speed solar wind
stream from a recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 23322112
Darwin 1 11-00101
Townsville 10 33322222
Learmonth 9 33322212
Culgoora 9 23323122
Canberra 6 23222111
Launceston 13 34333222
Hobart 11 24333121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Feb :
Davis 19 43434314
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 42 (Unsettled)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2221 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet to Unsettled levels
across the Australian region during the UT day, 17 Feb. The Antarctic
region was Quiet to Active. Expect these conditions to prevail
for the UT day, 18 Feb. and mostly Quiet levels with periods
of Unsettled conditions over the following two days, 19-20 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions can occur in the Southern
hemisphere as a consequence of the recent minor increase in geomagnetic
activity and low EUV levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Feb 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -6
Feb 4
Mar 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Feb 4 Near predicted monthly values
19 Feb 4 Near predicted monthly values
20 Feb 4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during
the UT day 17 Feb over the Australian region. Minor depressions
were also observed in the Northern Australian region during local
day. There were a few cases of Sporadic E blanketing over the
Australian ionosonde sites. For 18-20 Feb MUFs are expected to
be mostly near predicted monthly values. Minor to moderate depressions
can occur in the Southern hemisphere as a consequence of the
recent minor increase in geomagnetic activity and low EUV levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 65100 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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