[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 February 18 issued 2332 UT on 15 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 16 10:32:00 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 70/5 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 15 Feb. AR 2699
produced only weak B-class flares. Very low levels of solar flare
activity are expected for the next three UT days, 16-18 Feb,
with a chance for C-class flares. A shock wave, which is probably
associated with the CME observed on 12 Feb, was detected in the
solar wind at 0738 UT. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available imagery. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic
ion enhancement event beginning 15/0815UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. The
solar wind speed and IMF on UT day 15 Feb were steady, varying
near their background levels up to arrival of the shock wave.
Then the solar wind speed increased and reached its maximum value
of 390 km/s approximately at 1515 UT. The maximum IMF Bt was
11 nT. From 1305 UT to 1612 UT a prolonged period with negative
Bz (up to -8 nT) was observed. During the next UT day, 16 Feb,
the solar wind speed is expected to increase to moderate levels
due to arrival of high speed streams from the recurrent coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A K
Australian Region 9 11322422
Darwin 7 11312322
Townsville 8 11322322
Learmonth 12 11322522
Alice Springs 9 11322422
Culgoora 8 11322322
Gingin 12 11222532
Canberra 7 00322322
Launceston 9 11322323
Hobart 6 01212322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Feb :
Macquarie Island 12 00124522
Casey 13 32333422
Mawson 47 20123846
Davis 14 21224522
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 0222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
17 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
18 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet to active levels
across the Australian region during the UT day, 15 February.
Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions with one isolated minor
storm period were experienced in the Antarctic region. In the
SWS magnetometer data for 15 Feb, a weak (8 nT) impulse was observed
at 0836 UT. Unsettle to active conditions are expected for 16-17
February due to recurrent coronal hole effect.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: For 16 February, MUFs are expected to be enhanced due
to recent increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Feb 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -6
Feb 4
Mar 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during
the UT day 15 Feb over the Australian region. Minor depressions
were also observed in the Northern Australian region during local
day. Enhanced MUFs were observed in the Southern Australian region
after local dawn. There were a few cases of Sporadic E blanketing
over the Australian Ionosonde sites. Enhanced MUFs are expected
for 16 Feb due to recent increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 313 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 28300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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