[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 14 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 15 10:30:26 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Feb             16 Feb             17 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              74/11              73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 14 Feb. AR 2699 
produced only one B-class flare. Very low levels of solar flare 
activity are expected for the next three UT days, 15-17 Feb, 
with a chance for C-class flares. The CME associated with the 
C1.5 flare peaked at 12/0135 UT is expected to arrive at the 
end of the UT day 14 Feb or later, on 15 Feb. No other Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available imagery. The solar wind speed 
on UT day 14 Feb was steady near its background level, varying 
in the range 300-320 km/s. During the UT day 14 Feb, the IMF 
Bt was also steady, 2-3 nT, and its Bz component was between 
-3 nT and +3 nT. By the end of 14 Feb the speed may increase 
to moderate and strong levels due to arrival of the CME and high 
speed streams from the recurrent coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   10100001
      Darwin               2   21100012
      Townsville           2   11110011
      Learmonth            2   21100002
      Alice Springs        1   20100001
      Culgoora             1   10100011
      Gingin               2   20100012
      Canberra             0   10100000
      Launceston           0   10100000
      Hobart               0   10100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                6   32320021
      Mawson               8   31101134
      Davis                6   21213121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1000 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Feb    28    Active
16 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active
17 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 13 February 
and is current for 14-15 Feb. Magnetic conditions were at quiet 
levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 14 February. 
Mostly quiet and at times unsettled conditions were experienced 
in the Antarctic region. Active to minor storm conditions are 
expected for 15 February upon arrival of the CME associated with 
the C1.5 flare peaked at 12/0135 UT and corotating interaction 
region associated with the recurrent coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Feb      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are expected during 15 Feb due 
to predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Feb     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -6
Feb      4
Mar      3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Feb    10    Near predicted monthly values
16 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during 
the UT day 14 Feb over the Australian region. Minor depressions 
were also observed in the Northern Australian region during local 
day. There were very few incidence of Sporadic E blanketing over 
the Australian Ionosonde sites. Enhanced MUFs are expected on 
15 Feb due to predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 315 km/sec  Density:    7.1 p/cc  Temp:    24900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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