[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 13 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 14 10:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 75/13 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 13 Feb. Very low
to low levels of solar flare activity are expected for the next
three UT days, 14-16 Feb, with a weak chance for an isolated
M-class flare. The CME associated with the C1.5 flare peaked
at 12/0135 UT is expected to arrive by the end of the UT day
14 Feb. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
imagery. The solar wind speed on UT day 13 Feb was near the background
levels, varying in the range 300-330 km/s. During the UT day
13 Feb, the IMF Bt fluctuated between 2 nT and 6 nT and its Bz
component was between -4 nT and +4 nT. By the end of 14 Feb the
speed may increase due to arrival of the CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 11210001
Cocos Island 2 11210000
Darwin 2 11210001
Townsville 3 11211012
Learmonth 4 22211011
Alice Springs 2 11210001
Culgoora 2 11210002
Gingin 2 21110000
Canberra 2 02210001
Launceston 4 12211012
Hobart 2 11210001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 02100000
Casey 10 34321122
Mawson 9 13211134
Davis 8 13321132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0110 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
15 Feb 28 Active
16 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 13 February
and is current for 14-15 Feb. Magnetic conditions were at quiet
levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 13 February.
Mostly quiet and at times unsettled conditions were experienced
in the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
for 14 February. However, by the end of the UT day the CME associated
with the C1.5 flare peaked at 12/0135 UT is expected to arrive.
This may result in increase in the geomagnetic activity up to
minor storm levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Feb Fair Fair Fair-poor
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly near monthly predicted
levels for 14 February. Degraded HF conditions are expected at
the end of UT day 14 Feb and during 15 Feb due to expected increase
in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Feb 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -6
Feb 4
Mar 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Feb 4 Near predicted monthly values
15 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values
16 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during
the UT day 13 Feb over the Australian region. Minor depressions
were also observed in the Northern Australian region during local
day. There were very few incidence of Sporadic E blanketing over
the Australian Ionosonde sites. Similar HF conditions are expected
for 14 Feb. Enhanced MUFs are expected on 15 Feb due to predicted
increase in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 12.1 p/cc Temp: 17900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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